Brickman Consulting

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Ignorance, like Mr. Know-It-All

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.

Do you remember “Mr. Know It All” from “Rocky and Bullwinkle”? Bullwinkle would make some ridiculous remark that was completely wrong, but he said it with ultimate self-confidence and an assertive manner.

Do you know any “Mr. Know It Alls”? You know the type. They use their self-confidence and an assertive manner to bluff their way through every situation. The customers don’t know enough about the wood floor business to know if they are being given the straight scoop… or not. As long as everything goes as planned, the misinformation doesn’t seem to do any harm.

But let’s think about another approach that transforms Mr. Know-It-All into Mr. Knows-It-All. Think about how effective it would be to combine self-confidence and an assertive manner with actually knowing what you are talking about. This is done with some hard work by learning the important fundamentals. It starts by learning the technical vocabulary of 300 words… Learning how to properly spell and pronounce the words and their definitions… Then reading and reading and reading…

“The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who can't read them.” — Mark Twain. It’s a little late to be handing out a summer reading list, but here are some good books to put on your recommended reading list.

– Wood Handbook, published by the Forest Products Laboratory (PDFs of the chapters are available free here.)
– Drying Eastern Hardwood Lumber by John M. McMillen and Eugene M. Wengert (also available free on the Forest Product Laboratory website)
– Understanding Wood by Bruce Hoadley (Taunton Press)
– Identifying Wood by Bruce Hoadley (Taunton Press)

E-mail me when you get through these and need some more titles. Don’t get discouraged. Google the words that you don’t understand, or use a dictionary. I think that we still have dictionaries in the 21st century. I have been reading and rereading these and other books for over 30 years, and you never seem to really “Know-It-All”.

The Peril of Using Averages

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.
 
I’m going to start by answering the question Wayne Lee asked in his latest blog post: Wayne, the short answer on this job is NO. The 18% moisture content of the subfloor is the deal breaker. This is a complicated scenario when you toss the crawl space into the mix. You mentioned that the average MC is 18%, and I would like to take this opportunity to share some thoughts about using averages with moisture content. Averaging is a statistical method for making erratic data more uniform in appearance. But averaging also takes accurate data with a great deal variation and mathematically makes it a single number. With variable accurate data this is often quite misleading in that it can hide some very important information. It is much more informative to use the following format to describe accurate data. The minimum is ___. Maximum is ____. The majority of the measurements are in the range from MIN to MAX (which are adjusted to remove the outliers-extremely low or high data).  Let’s look at an example from our friends on Wall Street.

The advertising literature from Amalgamated Super Rich Guy Growth, Income, and Value Fund trumpets an “average” annual rate return of 9% for the past four years 2007-10. But as usual the devil is in the details. In 2007, the ASRGGIV Fund lost 90% of it value, but had returns of 42% in 2008, 2009, and 2010. (-90% + 42% + 42% + 42% = +36% / 4 years = 9%/year). Let’s look at $1,000 invested in January 1, 2007.

$1000 + (-90%) or -$900) = $100 balance on Dec. 31, 2007
$100 + (42%) or $42 = $142 balance on Dec. 31, 2008
$142 + (42%) or $59.64 = $201.64 balance on Dec. 31, 2009
$201.64 + (42%) or $84.69 = $286.33 balance on Dec. 31, 2010

The normal assumption with a 9% average would be that at the end of the four-year term $1,000 would be worth at least $1,360. That “average” IS hiding some very important information. Our original $1,000 is now worth $286.33, for a net loss of $713.67. So you call the fund manager, Kineon Goodhue Beelzebub and demand an explanation to which he replies, “But dude, the average annual return is 9%”. NOTE: Please don’t post any comments that I didn’t compute the annual return in accordance with SEC regulations. Dude, this is wood floor blog, and I am trying to make a point about how averaging may not always be a useful data analysis tool.

Now back to Oak Street from Wall Street. Flooring contractor Harry Picoides takes 30 moisture content readings of the plywood subfloor at a 1,500-foot job. If Harry is using a meter that gives accurate readings, he should evaluate each individual MC reading. For instance, the reading by the slider in the family room is 19% and all of the other readings are between 11% and 12%. This tells Harry that there is a water intrusion by the slider but the remainder of the job is good to go. So he asks the GC to fix the leak and dry out the subfloor. If Harry had averaged the 29 readings of 11% to 12% with one reading of 19% there would be no alert about the high MC location and Harry would be back at the job within the first year doing an uncompensated major repair and refinish.

But we didn’t discuss the issue of the crawlspace and the temperature and RH readings… yet. Wayne, thanks for presenting this scenario which will keep me thinking and writing for the remainder of the summer. Some quick thoughts about temperature, relative humidity and crawlspaces: While we should know and understand how these things work, HVAC contractors and general contractors are responsible for this piece of the puzzle. That being said, we own that subfloor once we install a wood floor over it and ignore high subfloor MC at our own peril and bank account.

Is Believing the Same as Knowing?

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.

Is believing that something is true or correct the same as knowing that a fact is true or correct because of rigorous objective examination? Said another way, “Don’t believe everything you think.” (Bill O’Hanlon.) Does this mean that we should stop thinking? Of course not. But it means that we should develop the ability to think critically and carefully evaluate the information that is presented to us. We all know individuals who can never really make a decision as they agonize over every minute detail of a proposition, so-called “analysis paralysis.” On the other hand, we also know people who will believe anything that they read or hear. This is called being gullible. There is a sweet spot somewhere east of gullible and west of analysis paralysis that thoughtful people search for.

Consensus is an extremely important tool for facilitating agreement. How do we decide which house to buy? Or what to have for dinner? Or how do we manage our private and public institutions? But this whole consensus decision-making process is not the most effective tool for determining actual facts or scientific truth. That’s right! Just because almost everyone “agrees” on something does not necessarily make it correct. We are bombarded continuously with polling data and statistical “studies” that are surrogates for consensus. This constant repetition can be very convincing even when it is not accurate or factual. How do we sift through this avalanche of information and figure out what is true?

Be skeptical! “If you can’t make something happen, you don’t know what caused it.” (Howard Brickman.) The greatest opponents of a good experiment are unknown, uncontrolled or irrelevant variables. It is analogous with trying to pick out the important remark whispered by an individual who is part of a very noisy gathering. If you are not looking directly at them you won’t even see their lips moving. And if you are not within several inches you might not be able to distinguish the words being spoken. Even if you do hear the remark you may not realize how important it is. Scientists often refer to all of this extraneous data as “noise” that drowns out the really important stuff. Once the correct data is recognized and introduced into the collective consciousness, we forget how much effort it took to figure it out.

Don’t believe everything you hear or read on the Internet! As individuals we greatly enhance our ability to recognize good information by developing our fundamental understanding of the physical world around us. But in our wood floor business, we have the added necessity of learning about wood and psychrometrics. Develop the habit of reading and rereading “quality” source materials. That way when someone takes cow manure, forms it to the shape of an apple and paints it red, we will have enough sense to figure out what it really is before we try to make an apple pie with a bag full of bull $#!+.

Dispatch from NWFA Prefinished School in the Big Apple

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.

I just attended a three-day NWFA class on the installation of prefinished flooring in New York City. These classes can be a lot of fun and a great learning experience. Most of us work in a vacuum. By that I mean we work within our own little groups of personal and professional associations. There is a tendency to decide that there is one way to do the work, and those habits become deeply ingrained. These classes are a wonderful opportunity to meet new people, learn some new things, experiment with new techniques, and try some different equipment and tools away from our normal cast of characters. We can also make mistakes without any bad financial outcome. The major limitation is the short time horizon.

This particular class is the first NWFA hands-on training event that I have attended in the last 10+ years, and it was a great deal of fun, with many learning opportunities. Daniel Boone (a real wood flooring contractor from Jacksonville, Fla.) was the lead instructor. If you have never been to one of Daniel’s schools, you owe it to yourself to do it at least once. The corny jokes and skills that Daniel uses don’t get old. As charismatic and skilled as Daniel is, the real star of this event was the host, The New York District Council of Carpenters, Labor Technical College’s floor covering instructor, Ron Zimmerman.

This is the Carpenters’ Union training school in New York City, which is a permanent facility that is similar in size to the typical urban community college. But the similarity ends at the front door. Ron Zimmerman runs the Floor Covering Department, which has jurisdiction over wood floors. There are classrooms, demonstration and work areas dedicated to the installation of wood floors. For union carpenters who want to learn the skills required to work for wood flooring contractors, training is available that is structured to teach the skills and tools of the trade for wood flooring. Knowledge and hands-on is a powerful combination. But we all know that you don’t have a relationship with an organization. It is the people who answer the phone, do the work, and make things happen that we have to deal with.

Ron provides a great deal of support to run these classes in NYC in a manner that is comparable with the training provided in St. Louis at NWFA headquarters, although on a slightly smaller scale. This training partnership between NWFA and The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is delivering a high-quality learning environment for anyone willing to take advantage of the opportunity. There is another class scheduled for August 3-5, with a few spaces still available, so be there or be square.

Are You Whimpering?

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.

“Sir, we clocked you installing a wood floor on a high moisture content subfloor. May I see your documentation on moisture content of the subfloor?”

You whimper, “But officer, it looked dry to me.”

This is the wood floor guy equivalent of getting bagged with the radar gun going 50 in the 30 mph speed zone. So, how do you protect yourself? Get a radar detector. It’s called a moisture meter. Here are the step by step instructions.

-Buy a proper moisture meter.
-Use the moisture meter.
-Learn how to take the right amount of moisture tests.
-Learn how to properly use your proper moisture meter.
-Take your proper moisture meter everywhere you go.

Now let’s break it down.

– Buy a proper moisture meter: I use the Delmhorst J-4 or BD-10 electrical resistance (pin type) meters and also keep a Moisture Content Standard (also sold by Delmhorst) to check the meter for accuracy every time I use it. I am not familiar with all of the other moisture meters currently available. And Mom used to say if you can’t say something nice, then don’t say anything.

– Use the moisture meter: Check every place where there could possibly be some excessive moisture, including near exterior doors and windows, plumbing, tile wet saw, masonry and plaster mixing locations. It is not the average of the MC readings that damages flooring, it is high MC locations. Your options are to dry or replace the wet subfloor.

– Learn how to take the right amount of moisture tests. You can probably stop when you get to 50 tests in 1500’. Even on small jobs you should take at least 15 readings. Another hint: Write the date, MC, and your initials on the subfloor with a black Sharpie. Test the flooring on the bottom face and also write the test results on the pieces of flooring. If the floor has to be replaced you will have the documentation there for the world to see. It is also a great idea to record these MC readings on the work order or flooring delivery ticket or other job related paperwork that can be tucked away in the job file.

– Learn how to properly use your proper moisture meter: What does the MC number mean? Learn what “normal” MC in subflooring and flooring is for your part of the world during different times of the year by testing existing houses. Get in the habit of constantly checking your own house. Push those pins to the full ¼”/ 5/16” depth and orient the pins with the longitudinal axis of the grain (with the grain). And what does variance of the number mean? If the MC varies by more than 1% there is something changing in the building. The greater the variance, the more substantial the changes that are in progress.

– Take your proper moisture meter everywhere you go. Please…. Pretty please with sugar on it…

The best source for information on moisture meters is our friends at the Forest Products Laboratory. One of my favorites is FPL-08 Electric Moisture Meters for Wood by William James. And you can download a copy from the FPL web site.

And remember the magic words: shrink and swell.

Try Ignorance

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Cross posted from Howard Brickman's article on Hardwood Floors Magazine: Inspector Blog.

If you think education is expensive, what do you figure the going rate for ignorance is? Or, do you think no one will notice when you are faking it? The “good” news is that most of your customers are very poorly informed and won’t know if your information is not correct. So if everyone uses the same incorrect information, who will notice? My intent in writing this blog is to challenge some of the mythology regarding wood flooring that has been incorporated into the collective consciousness of the wood flooring industry and to share some excellent sources of basic knowledge. But I will start with the warning that you should not believe anything unless you truly understand its basis in knowledge. With technical and scientific knowledge, this means that you need to understand the physical world described by physics, chemistry, biology, botany, and math.

An important part of understanding the knowledge is the words that comprise the vocabulary of every profession, skill, or specialty. Where it is feasible, it is best to avoid reinventing the wheel with regard to terminology. It is especially useful to bring terms from the basic fields of science into our specialty to build a bridge into the basic knowledge and establish a direct link with our specialty and what we can prove. Does this mean that everyone needs to become a physicist? No, but we should respect the terminology that describes the physical world and not invent our own mock science to describe what goes on around us.

So, here we go. Wood “shrinks” and “swells” when it loses and gains moisture content… like that fancy wool sweater that you should not have put in the dryer at the high heat setting. The words “expand” and “contract” generally refer to dimensional changes that occur due to changes in temperature. Although very similar in meaning to swell and shrink, it is not technically correct. The Wood Handbook is the one of the best sources for information about wood that is technically accurate. It is published by the Forest Products Laboratory in Madison, Wis. Better yet, it’s free if you have a computer with Internet access. It is a technical book that requires some understanding of basic science and math. It also contains almost all of the fundamental knowledge about wood and lumber that professionals would need for their entire career. If you are only going to have one book in your professional library, make it The Wood Handbook.

The wood floor bidness has developed some less-than-accurate habits over the years with the words we use to describe wood and how it works. We are not disciplined about using technical words. And using the correct words is a great habit to develop, because it greatly limits misunderstanding. Misunderstanding can easily transition into differences of opinion, which can easily transition into disagreements, which can easily transition into disputes and problems. Disputes and problems are bad for business, which wastes a great deal of our mental energy and material resources. Distractions that you enjoy are called hobbies, while distractions that are not enjoyable are called problems. It makes no sense to cultivate any hobbies that are not enjoyable . So when you refer to dimensional changes related to changes in moisture content, please use the magical words “shrink” and “swell”.